Latest poll results issued by TNS UK and its new Scottish Opinion Monitor

EDINBURGH – 20th February 2014 
– Scottish opinion on independence remained unchanged as 2014, the year of the referendum, got under way, according to the latest poll by TNS.

The survey of 996 adults aged 16 and over in Scotland, between 28th January and 6th February found 29% intending to vote Yes in the referendum on September 18th and 42% intending to vote No, with 29% Don’t Knows. The figures are virtually identical to the results of two TNS polls carried out since the New Year.

The polling was completed before the recent rejection by the three main UK parties of the Scottish National Party’s plan for an independent Scotland to remain in a currency union with the rest of the UK and the claim by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso that it would be “difficult, if not impossible” for an independent Scotland to achieve EU membership.

“The debate on independence has stepped up a gear in the last few days,” said Tom Costley, head of TNS in Scotland.

“Opinion in Scotland showed little change over the last few months, with a relatively high level of Don’t Knows, and our polls have consistently shown that people are looking for more information on which to make their decision.

“It may be that the recent activity, especially the firm statement by the anti-independence parties on the future of the pound, will stimulate more debate, bring out more information and help undecided voters to make up their minds.”

While the overall voting intentions show a No lead of 13 percentage points, that narrows to nine points among the 69% of Scots who say they are certain to vote – 35% of this group say they plan to vote Yes, and 44% intend to vote No.

The proportion who claim they are certain to vote has also remained steady over the last six months at around two thirds. Men are more likely than women to say they are certain to vote (71% vs 67%). Older groups are more likely to be certain to vote (83% of those aged 55+ against 49% of those aged 16-34) as are those in higher social grades (78% of ABC1s against 60% of C2DEs).


Notes to editors:

1. A sample of 996 adults aged 16+ was interviewed in 71 constituencies across Scotland over the period 28th January – 6th February 2014

2. To ensure the sample was representative of the adult population of Scotland, it was weighted to match population profile estimates in the analysis. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results

3. Respondents were asked: There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes, No, Don’t know

4. All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and quota sampling

Detailed tables for this survey can be found here.


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