Latest poll results issued by TNS BMRB and its new Scottish Opinion Monitor
EDINBURGH – 7th November 2013 – Half of all voters in Scotland want more information on the economy and employment in order to help them decide how to vote in next September’s independence referendum, according to a new poll from TNS BMRB.
The survey of 1010 adults in Scotland found overall voting intentions are virtually unchanged from September, with 25% saying they would vote Yes to independence (the same as September), 43% voting No (44%) and 32% don’t know (31%).
Younger voters are especially likely to feel they need more information to help them decide on their vote: 58% of 16-34-year-olds said they wanted more information on the economy and jobs, against 49% for the population as whole.
More than a third (37%) of voters want to know more about pensions/benefits and 31% are looking for more information on taxes. Other issues where people want to be better informed are immigration (22%), Scotland’s share of the UK national debt (20%) and defence (18%).
Considerable media discussion about other issues has not resulted in a thirst for more information: only 13% want to be better informed about the implications of independence for the currency and 4% about broadcasting/the BBC. Only 4% want to know more about the constitution/monarchy, though this may reflect a general understanding that the Yes campaign intends that the monarchy would remain part of an independent Scotland.
“Having previously highlighted that many feel they are lacking information, this poll clearly shows that the financial issues are of greatest concern to the voters,” said Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland. “The high number of don’t knows suggests that both sides need to do much more to ensure that people are confident about the implications of their vote for their financial future.”
The survey also suggested that the referendum could be set for a high turnout, with two thirds (66%) of adults saying they are certain to vote, and a further 14% very likely to vote. This compares with a turnout of 50.4% in the 2011 elections to the Scottish parliament, and the 63.8% Scottish turnout in the 2010 general election (source: Scottish Parliament website).
Download the graphical summary of polling results here.
Notes to editors
- A sample of 1,010 adults aged 16+ was interviewed in 71 constituencies across Scotland over the period 23rd - 30th October 2013
- To ensure the sample was representative of the adult population of Scotland, it was weighted to match population profile estimates in the analysis. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results
- Respondents were asked: There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes, No, Don’t know
- All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and quota sampling
Full data tables are available here. Please treat with caution those figures where the sample size – the unweighted base – is less than 50.
About TNS BMRB:
TNS BMRB is a leading provider of specialist social research, offering insight into public policy to government and not-for-profit clients. Delivering a range of approaches including bespoke proprietary research and consultancy, random probability survey capabilities, as well as social marketing and polling, our work informs policy makers across national and local Government at the highest level. TNS BMRB forms part of the Kantar group of companies. For more information please visit us on our website www.tns-bmrb.co.uk.