TORONTO, August 18 2011 - Last week’s turmoil in the stock markets has severely shaken Canadian consumers’ confidence in the economy, causing a significant drop in the Kantar TNS Canadian Consumer Confidence Index. After a slight drop in July (in the wake of the US debt crisis and all-round bad economic news), the Index dropped almost a full two points in August, from 99.7 to 97.6, wiping out any optimism Canadians showed in the economy during the spring and in the wake of the Federal election.
“Canadians have clearly been spooked by last week’s ups and downs in the stock market.” said Norman Baillie-David, Vice President of Kantar TNS Canada and director of the marketing and social research firm’s monthly tracking study. “Even in the summer months, when you don’t think people are paying much attention to the news or stock markets, these gyrations (in the markets) are having a significant impact on Canadians’ view of the economy, as well as their own prospects.” The Present Situation Index, which measures how people feel about the economy right now, dropped a full point, from 100.3 to 99.0, showing that the fear in the markets is having less impact on how Canadians’ feel they are doing right now.
The Expectations Index, which measures people’s outlook for the economy six months from now, is the Index which shows the greatest impact of the fear caused by the uncertainty in the markets. This Index plummeted almost six points, from 105.4 to 99.6, its lowest point since July 2009. “All of a sudden, those market fluctuations we saw last week are having an important ripple effect. For the first time in a long time, the uncertainty in the markets is causing Canadians to feel their future prospects will be turning towards the worse. Unfortunately when it comes to consumer confidence, the fear is that pessimism often turns out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy” explained Mr. Baillie-David.
The Buy Index, which measures the extent to which Canadians’ feel that now is a good time to purchase a “big ticket item”, such as a car or a major household appliance, moved very slightly from 93.3 to 93.7, which can be interpreted as no change in statistical terms. “This is likely the combination of statistical margin of error, combined with a feeling among some Canadians that they may be better off making that purchase now, before they believe things actually get worse.” added Mr. Baillie-David. Consumer Confidence Index tracks Canadians’ attitudes about the economy each month and is part of a global study conducted by Kantar TNS in 18 countries. Three indices are produced each month to show how confidence in the economy is changing: Present Situation Index; an Expectations Index; and a Buy Index. The Canadian fieldwork is conducted using the firm’s national bi-weekly telephone omnibus service, Kantar TNS Express Telephone. A total of 1,015 nationally representative Canadian adults were interviewed between August 8 and August 12, 2011. For a survey sample of this size, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About the CCI study
Seven questions make up the core survey of Consumer Confidence. While the overall CCI index uses all 7 questions to produce an index score, there are three sub-indices that rely on some of the questions.
CCI Index: Includes all 7 variables
Present Situation Index:
- How would you describe your country's current economic situation?
- How would you describe your country's current employment situation?
- What do you think will be your country's economic situation in the next 6 months?
- What do you think will be your country's employment situation in the next 6 months?
- What do you think your income will be in 6 months time?
- Taking into consideration the cost of things today and the financial situation in general, to what extent would you say that now is a good or bad time to buy products such as: a house or apartment, a car, household appliances such as a washing machine, a refrigerator, a TV set etc.?
About Norman Baillie-David:
Norman (“Norm”) Baillie-David is Vice President and Director of Public Opinion Research , and Head of Qualitative Research and Strategy for Kantar TNS Canada. He also leads the Kantar TNS office in the National Capital Region, as well as sitting on the Kantar TNS Global Steering Committee for Political and Social Research.
Norm is a seasoned market researcher and bilingual focus group moderator, with g g p more than twenty five years of experience in market and social research and strategy development. As a bilingual and bicultural Montrealer originally, Norman is one of those rare researchers who conducts research in a seamless and transparent manner among both English and French Canadians, with each group believing that he is “one of their own”. The result is a keen insider’s perspective on sentiments across the country among both English and French. Having conducted more than 1,000 surveys and many more focus groups, Norm is constantly abreast of what Canadian consumers across the country are thinking and feeling about their prospects.
Norm has designed and managed more than 1,000 surveys in a wide-variety of areas, ranging from high-technology to consumer products, and Norman is a recognized “expert” in complex survey methodology design and multivariate statistical analysis. He is in frequent demand by the media and market research industry in Canada to speak on the comparisons and contrasts of public opinion in Quebec and the rest of Canada, and has published widely. In addition, Norm has conducted assignments in more than 40 different countries around the world, and has a keen interest in cross-cultural issues, especially related to public opinion and the use of technology.
Before joining Kantar TNS Canada, Norm was Managing Partner of an Ottawa-based public opinion research and management consulting firm (2001-2009). He spent most of his preceding career at a major management consulting firm, as well as three years with a well known Quebec market research firm. He is a Certified Marketing Research Professional (CMRP), member of the Market Research Intelligence Association (MRIA), and he served as a President of the Ottawa Chapter from 2002 to 2004. If you would like to add proprietary questions to the CCI study, obtain full tabular results, receive a historical time series for all the index scores, or if you have other inquiries about CCI, please contact:
(613) 230-4408 x101
About Kantar TNS
Kantar TNS Canada (formerly known as Kantar TNS Canadian Facts) is the Canadian arm of Kantar TNS. Kantar TNS is the global leader in custom market research delivering actionable insights and research-based business advice to clients around the globe so they can make more effective business decisions. Kantar TNS offers comprehensive industry knowledge within the Consumer, Technology, Finance, Automotive and Political & Social sectors, supported by a unique product offering that stretches across the entire range of marketing and business issues, specializing in product development & innovation, brand & communication, stakeholder management, retail & shopper, and qualitative research. Delivering best-in-class service across more than 80 countries, Kantar TNS is dedicated to discovering growth opportunities for its clients in an ever-changing world. Through its pioneering and innovative culture, Kantar TNS understands the latest marketing challenges and research techniques, being the first to discover and solve new marketing issues for clients.
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