Latest poll results issued by TNS UK and its Scottish Opinion Monitor
Edinburgh, 16 April 2014 - Scottish opinion on independence shows little change in the latest in the series of monthly polls by TNS. But the gap between the Yes and No votes continues to narrow and three quarters of Scottish adults now say they are certain to vote in the September 18th referendum.
The poll of 988 adults aged over 16 in Scotland found that 41% intend to vote No and 29% say they will vote Yes, with 30% undecided. This compares with a 42% No vote and a 28% Yes vote in the previous poll a month ago.
While month-to-month movements in the Yes and No votes have not been significant, the No lead has narrowed gradually from 19% in September when the current polling series began, to 12% in the latest poll.
Among those who claim they are certain to vote, 33% say they intend to vote Yes (up one percentage point from February), 46% No (unchanged) and one fifth (21%) remain undecided (down one percentage point).
The latest poll also saw the proportion who say they are certain to vote reach a high of 74%, a number that has steadily risen from 65% in September. While 84% of Yes voters and 83% of No voters claim they are certain to vote on the day, it is also important to note that even among the Don’t knows, half (52%) say they are certain to vote and a further 17% say they are very likely to vote.
The poll also questioned adults on the extent to which they had decided on their vote. Half (52%) say they have definitely decided how they will vote and will not change their minds. The percentage of committed voters is virtually identical among Yes and No voters at 73% and 72% respectively. Men, older adults and those in the higher socio-economic groups are more likely to have made up their minds.
A further 13% say that they have almost decided but might still change their minds, 14% say they have an idea how they will vote but have not decided, while 15% say they have not made any decision about how they will vote.
Tom Costley, Head of TNS Scotland, said: “The increase in the proportion who claim they are certain to vote is an indication that more and more people are realising the importance of this referendum and are becoming increasingly engaged in the process.”
“This survey shows that while many voters are now committed to one side or the other, a significant proportion of voters still have to make up their minds. Many undecided voters are telling us that they will definitely cast their vote, and how the campaigns address their interests is likely to have a big influence on the final outcome.”
Notes to editors
1. A sample of 988 adults aged 16+ was interviewed in 71 constituencies across Scotland over the period 21st March to 2nd April 2014.
2. To ensure the sample was representative of the adult population of Scotland, it was weighted to match population profile estimates in the analysis. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results.
3. Respondents were asked: There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes, No, Don’t know.
4. All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and quota sampling.
Detailed tables for this survey can be found here.
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