COLUMBUS, January 8, 2009—December same-store sales declined 1.5%, but the decline was not as severe as November for about 40 retailers reporting monthly results today, TNS Retail Forward reports.
December’s result is better than a decline of 2.5% reported last month for the sales-weighted composite, but down from the 0.2% composite gain reported in December of 2007.
“It’s encouraging that most retailers saw some improvement in their numbers compared with November. In the case of Walmart and others, the new weakness largely reflected the impact of weather, lower gasoline prices and even exchange rate effects. These results provide signs that retail weakness may be bottoming out,” said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist at TNS Retail Forward.
December’s results were led by stronger than average results at Discount Department Stores—largely Walmart, even though its results were lower than expected. Apparel and Accessory Stores and Department Stores reported the worst composite results, followed by Warehouse Clubs. (For a list of the retailers reporting and their results, please follow this link: http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/samestr_sales.pdf.)
The signs of bottoming in the December’s same-store sales numbers are also evident in the TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ survey fielded at the end of December (Figure 1):
- The percentage of shoppers intending to spend less in the coming month held steady at 54% at the end of December.
- The new slippage is among shoppers planning to spend more in the coming month. Instead, a slightly greater percentage of shoppers plan to spend about the same as last year.
According to the ShopperScape™ survey, the average household reported spending nearly $60 less on holiday gifts in December—and about $25 less on gifts purchased online in December (Figure 2).
- The categories where shoppers cut back the most were: CDs and DVDs, clothing, toys and books (Figure 3).
Shopping activity remained down in December for most retailers, including Walmart, but a number of beleaguered retailers saw the percentage of shoppers that shopped their store hold steady or increase in December compared with the prior year (Figure 4).
- The retailers holding their own in terms of shoppers included: Kmart, drug store retailers, Kohl’s, Macy’s, shoe retailers and the upscale department store retailers (Nordstrom, Saks, Bloomingdales and Neiman Marcus).
The declines in shopping activity were generally more severe for online retailers than store retailers in December (Figure 5).
- Walmart’s web site was among the online retail sites that saw a five percentage point or more drop in the percentage of shoppers that shopped the Web site in December. The others were Overstock.com, Circuit City, Best Buy and Target.
Figure 1
Intentions to Spend More, the Same or Less at Retail Stores Compared to This Time Last Year
|
|
September
|
October
|
November
|
December *
|
|
Spend Much/Somewhat More
|
17%
|
8%
|
7%
|
5%
|
|
Spend About the Same
|
42%
|
39%
|
39%
|
41%
|
|
Spend Much/Somewhat Less
|
41%
|
53%
|
54%
|
54%
|
* Note: December data is unweighted topline data.
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February to December 2008
Figure 2
Comparison of Amounts Spent/Received: December 2007 vs. December 2008
|
|
December
2007
|
December
2008
|
|
Average Amount Spent on Holiday Gifts
|
$669
|
$611
|
|
Average Amount Spent on Holiday Gifts Online
|
$270
|
$245
|
|
Average Dollar Amount of Gift Cards Received
|
$128
|
$120
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average % of Gift Cards Redeemed So Far
|
17%
|
20%
|
|
Average % of Gift Cards Planning to Redeem by End of January
|
62%
|
61%
|
Note: Unweighted topline data
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2007-December 2008
Figure 3
What types of gifts did you give this holiday season?
|
|
December
2007
|
December
2008
|
|
Sample Size
|
3,618
|
3,745
|
|
Clothing, clothing accessories or shoes
|
68%
|
63%
|
|
Gift cards / gift certificates
|
55%
|
54%
|
|
Toys/dolls/games (not video games)
|
52%
|
46%
|
|
Books
|
42%
|
37%
|
|
Pre-recorded music or video tapes, CDs or DVDs
|
39%
|
32%
|
|
Personal care or beauty items
|
30%
|
31%
|
|
Video games, video gaming systems or related accessories
|
26%
|
30%
|
|
Money/checks/stocks/bonds
|
27%
|
26%
|
|
Food/food baskets
|
23%
|
23%
|
|
Consumer electronics or personal computer-related accessories
|
24%
|
23%
|
|
Home decor or home-related furnishings
|
21%
|
21%
|
|
Sporting goods or leisure items
|
17%
|
15%
|
|
Fine Jewelry
|
15%
|
13%
|
|
Small appliances
|
13%
|
13%
|
|
Hand tools
|
7%
|
6%
|
|
Plants/wreaths/flowers
|
5%
|
5%
|
|
Power tools
|
5%
|
4%
|
|
Other
|
18%
|
21%
|
Note: Unweighted topline data.
Note: Bold indicates a significant difference between December 2007 and December 2008.
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2007-December 2008
Figure 4
Where did you shop for holiday gifts?
|
|
December
2007
|
December
2008
|
|
Sample Size
|
3,618
|
3,739
|
|
Walmart/Walmart Supercenter
|
62%
|
59%
|
|
Target/SuperTarget
|
46%
|
46%
|
|
Warehouse clubs (such as Costco, SAM'S Club)
|
26%
|
24%
|
|
Kmart/Big Kmart
|
22%
|
22%
|
|
Drug store retailers
|
21%
|
22%
|
|
Small-format value retailers (such as dollar stores, e.g., Dollar General, Family Dollar)
|
20%
|
18%
|
|
Meijer
|
n/a
|
7%
|
|
Other Supercenter/discount department stores
|
10%
|
7%
|
|
JCPenney
|
32%
|
32%
|
|
Kohl's
|
32%
|
32%
|
|
Macy's
|
23%
|
23%
|
|
Sears
|
23%
|
22%
|
|
Other traditional department stores (such as Dillard’s, Belk, etc.)
|
18%
|
16%
|
|
Apparel specialty retailers (such as Gap, Chico's, Ann Taylor, etc.)
|
18%
|
16%
|
|
Factory outlet stores
|
13%
|
12%
|
|
Shoe retailers
|
9%
|
10%
|
|
Nordstrom, Saks 5th Avenue, Bloomingdale's or Neiman Marcus
|
7%
|
7%
|
|
Mervyn's
|
5%
|
5%
|
|
Best Buy
|
29%
|
28%
|
|
Circuit City
|
16%
|
13%
|
|
Other consumer electronics/ appliance/ computer retailers (e.g., Fry's, CompUSA)
|
9%
|
11%
|
|
Office supply retailers
|
10%
|
8%
|
|
Lowe's
|
15%
|
14%
|
|
The Home Depot
|
16%
|
14%
|
|
Home furnishings/domestics store retailers
|
10%
|
10%
|
|
Other home improvement/hardware retailers
|
7%
|
6%
|
|
Book and media retailers
|
38%
|
32%
|
|
Other
|
22%
|
27%
|
|
Grocery stores/supermarkets
|
30%
|
26%
|
|
Toys 'R Us
|
26%
|
26%
|
|
Personal care and beauty retailers (such as Bath & Body Works, Aveda, Sephora)
|
24%
|
24%
|
|
Sporting goods retailers
|
16%
|
16%
|
|
Crafts or fabrics retailers
|
17%
|
15%
|
|
Other toy stores (e.g., K-B Toys)
|
13%
|
11%
|
|
Jewelry store retailers
|
10%
|
10%
|
|
Gadget/gift/theme retailers
|
10%
|
9%
|
Note: Unweighted topline data
Note: Bold indicates a significant difference between December 2007 and December 2008.
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2007-December 2008
Figure 5
At which retailer Web sites did you shop for holiday gifts?
|
|
December 2007
|
December 2008
|
|
Sample Size
|
2,150
|
2,528
|
|
Amazon.com
|
49%
|
47%
|
|
Walmart
|
36%
|
29%
|
|
Target
|
31%
|
26%
|
|
Kmart
|
11%
|
9%
|
|
Best Buy
|
25%
|
19%
|
|
Circuit City
|
17%
|
10%
|
|
Sears
|
14%
|
12%
|
|
JCPenney
|
19%
|
17%
|
|
Macy's
|
10%
|
9%
|
|
Kohl's
|
16%
|
14%
|
|
Toys "R" Us
|
19%
|
16%
|
|
Lowe's
|
7%
|
5%
|
|
The Home Depot
|
8%
|
7%
|
|
Overstock.com
|
23%
|
16%
|
|
eBay
|
n/a
|
24%
|
|
Apple
|
5%
|
4%
|
|
Dell
|
7%
|
5%
|
|
QVC
|
9%
|
9%
|
|
Sam's Club
|
7%
|
6%
|
|
Costco
|
7%
|
6%
|
|
None of these
|
17%
|
22%
|
Note: Unweighted topline data
Note: Bold indicates a significant difference between December 2007 and December 2008.
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, December 2007-December 2008
###
About TNS Retail Forward
TNS Retail Forward, Inc. (http://www.retailforward.com/) is a global management consulting and market research firm specializing in retail intelligence and strategies. The company's syndicated research and executive development program known as the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, provides members with an authoritative perspective on the retail and consumer products industries.
About the TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
The TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ survey is conducted each month with a sample of 4,000 U.S. primary household shoppers. The monthly survey is conducted online among a nationally representative sample of households. This month's survey was conducted during the last week of last month. Results from the survey are available to members of the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ as well as through individual reports available for purchase. For more information on ShopperScape™ or the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, contact Kathy Clarke (mailto:kclarke@retailforward.com) or visit the company's web site at http://www.retailforward.com/.
About TNS
TNS is a global market information and insight group.
Its strategic goal is to be recognized as the global leader in delivering value-added information and insights that help its clients make more effective business decisions.
TNS delivers innovative thinking and excellent service across a network of 80 countries. Working in partnership with clients, TNS provides high-quality information, analysis and insight that improves understanding of consumer behavior.
TNS is the world’s leading provider of customized services, combining sector knowledge with expertise in the areas of Product Development & Innovation, Brand & Communications, Stakeholder Management and Retail & Shopper. TNS is a major supplier of consumer panel, media intelligence and audience measurement services.
TNS is the sixth sense of business™.
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