COLUMBUS, November 6, 2008—Retail same-store sales declined 0.6% in October for about 40 retailers reporting monthly results today, TNS Retail Forward reports.
October’s result is down from a 1.3% sales-weighted composite increase reported last month and down from the 1.7% increase reported in October of 2007.
“Shoppers are focusing on necessities and on finding the best deals as they cut back their spending. And that will continue through the holidays,” said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist at TNS Retail Forward.
October’s results were led by weak positive results at Warehouse Clubs and Discount Department Stores. The declines were deep at Apparel and Accessory Stores and Department Stores. (For a list of the retailers reporting and their results, please follow this link: http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/samestr_sales.pdf.)
The weak results are foreshadowing weak holiday spending plans reported by shoppers in the latest TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ survey fielded in October after the federal financial bailout passed Congress (Figure 1):
- Half of shoppers (50%) reported in October that they plan to spend a lot less or somewhat less on holiday gifts this year compared with last year. That’s a big jump from the 31% of shoppers that planned to spend less at the same point a year ago.
- Just 7% of shoppers plan to spend a lot more or somewhat more on holiday gifts. That’s down from 13% that planned to spend more a year ago.
Discount stores, supercenters and warehouse clubs are among the few retail channels that are not being cut from the list of planned stops for holiday shopping. Otherwise, shoppers are narrowing the number of store types where they plan to shop (Figure 2).
- Discount stores/supercenters not only top the list of retail channels that shoppers plan to shop for the holiday, but they also have as many shoppers this year planning to do their holiday shopping at them as last year. Other lines of trade offering savings—warehouse clubs, factory outlet stores and small-format value stores—are also retaining their popularity with shoppers.
- Fewer shoppers are planning to buy via non-store channels—online and catalogs—although free shipping deals could be enough incentive to shift shoppers’ plans.
- Department stores and other apparel-related channels will face challenges as significantly fewer shoppers plan to shop those channels this year.
- Even channels focusing on leisure products, which have performed better than other channels, face the prospect of fewer shoppers. Consumer electronics, sporting goods stores and gadget/gift stores show declines in the percentages of shoppers intending to fulfill their holiday lists at them.
Among product categories, the video game category is the most notable exception to the cutbacks planned by shoppers. Otherwise, the cutbacks span a broad array of product categories (Figure 3).
- Exceptions to the planned cutbacks include the popular category of video games, video gaming systems or related accessories and less popular categories of home décor or home-related furnishings and plants/wreaths/flowers.
- Gift cards, clothing, toys and books remain the most popular gift categories in the same order as last year, but all face a significantly smaller share of shoppers planning to make purchases of those categories.
Figure 1. How Much Will Shoppers Spend on Holidays Compared to Previous Year?
|
|
Total Primary Shoppers
|
|
|
2008
|
2007
|
|
A lot more
|
2%
|
3%
|
|
Somewhat more
|
5%
|
10%
|
|
About the same amount
|
37%
|
51%
|
|
Somewhat less
|
28%
|
20%
|
|
A lot less
|
22%
|
11%
|
|
I don’t buy holiday gifts
|
5%
|
5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample Size
|
4,042
|
4,023
|
Data in bold indicate significant differences between percentages of total primary shoppers in 2008 vs. 2007.
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, October 2007 and October 2008
Figure 2. Where Shoppers are Buying This Holiday Season
|
|
Total Primary Shoppers
|
|
|
Buying Gifts
2008
|
Buying Gifts
2007
|
|
Discount stores/ supercenters
|
50%
|
49%
|
|
Online
|
35%
|
39%
|
|
Value department stores (such as Sears, JCPenney, Kohl's, etc.)
|
32%
|
36%
|
|
Book and media stores
|
23%
|
27%
|
|
Traditional department stores (such as Dillards, Macy's, Belk, etc.)
|
20%
|
25%
|
|
Warehouse clubs
|
15%
|
15%
|
|
Catalogs
|
13%
|
17%
|
|
Factory outlet stores
|
11%
|
11%
|
|
Consumer electronics/ appliance/ computer stores
|
11%
|
13%
|
|
Sporting good stores
|
10%
|
12%
|
|
Specialty apparel stores (such as Gap, Chico's, Ann Taylor, etc.)
|
9%
|
12%
|
|
Crafts or fabrics store
|
9%
|
10%
|
|
Small-format value stores (such as dollar stores)
|
8%
|
7%
|
|
Gadget/gift/ theme stores
|
8%
|
12%
|
|
Grocery stores/ supermarkets
|
8%
|
8%
|
|
Drug stores
|
7%
|
7%
|
|
Home furnishings/ domestics stores
|
6%
|
6%
|
|
Home improvement/ hardware stores
|
6%
|
7%
|
|
Shoe stores
|
5%
|
6%
|
|
Upscale department stores (such as Nordstrom, Bloomingdale's, Saks 5th Avenue, etc.)
|
4%
|
6%
|
|
Jewelry stores
|
4%
|
6%
|
|
Office supply stores
|
3%
|
3%
|
|
Other
|
7%
|
7%
|
|
I don't know
|
22%
|
19%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size
|
3,839
|
3,812
|
Data in bold indicate significant differences between percentages of total primary shoppers in 2008 vs. 2007
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, October 2007 and October 2008
Figure 3. Types of Gifts Shoppers are Buying This Holiday Season
|
|
Total Primary Shoppers
|
|
|
Buying Gifts
2008
|
Buying Gifts
2007
|
|
Gift cards/gift certificates
|
51%
|
54%
|
|
Clothing, clothing accessories or shoes
|
45%
|
50%
|
|
Toys/dolls/games (not video games)
|
33%
|
38%
|
|
Books
|
30%
|
33%
|
|
Video games, video gaming systems or related accessories
|
25%
|
26%
|
|
Pre-recorded music or video tapes, CDs or DVDs
|
24%
|
31%
|
|
Personal care or beauty items
|
23%
|
26%
|
|
Consumer electronics or personal computer-related accessories
|
15%
|
18%
|
|
Food/food baskets
|
14%
|
16%
|
|
Sporting goods or leisure items
|
13%
|
15%
|
|
Home décor or home-related furnishings
|
11%
|
12%
|
|
Tools
|
9%
|
11%
|
|
Fine jewelry
|
7%
|
11%
|
|
Plants/wreaths/flowers
|
5%
|
6%
|
|
Other
|
7%
|
6%
|
|
Don't know
|
20%
|
18%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size
|
3,839
|
3,812
|
Data in bold indicate significant differences between percentages of total primary shoppers in 2008 vs. 2007
Source: TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™, October 2007 and October 2008
###
About TNS Retail Forward
TNS Retail Forward, Inc. (http://www.retailforward.com/) is a global management consulting and market research firm specializing in retail intelligence and strategies. The company's syndicated research and executive development program known as the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, provides members with an authoritative perspective on the retail and consumer products industries.
About the TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™
The TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape™ survey is conducted each month with a sample of 4,000 U.S. primary household shoppers. The monthly survey is conducted online among a nationally representative sample of households. This month's survey was conducted during the last week of last month. Results from the survey are available to members of the Retail Forward Intelligence System™ as well as through individual reports available for purchase. For more information on ShopperScape™ or the Retail Forward Intelligence System™, contact Kathy Clarke (kclarke@retailforward.com) or visit the company's web site at http://www.retailforward.com/.
About TNS
TNS is a global market information and insight group.
Its strategic goal is to be recognized as the global leader in delivering value-added information and insights that help its clients make more effective business decisions.
TNS delivers innovative thinking and excellent service across a network of 80 countries. Working in partnership with clients, TNS provides high-quality information, analysis and insight that improves understanding of consumer behavior.
TNS is the world’s leading provider of customized services, combining sector knowledge with expertise in the areas of Product Development & Innovation, Brand & Communications, Stakeholder Management and Retail & Shopper. TNS is a major supplier of consumer panel, media intelligence and audience measurement services.
TNS is the sixth sense of business™.
www.tnsglobal.com
