The latest TNS Worldpanel grocery market share figures, published today for the 12 weeks ending 6th September 2009 increasingly confirm the impression that “recession panic” is ebbing away as far as the grocery market is concerned. This is not to imply that all sectors of the High Street will instantly return to pre-recession growth. Rather that food remains a manageable proportion of most household budgets by historical standards and, it could be argued, the grocery sector suffered from an over-reaction at the end of 2008 when Aldi posted year-on-year sales growth of 26% and Waitrose saw a sales decline.
Fast-forward to today and Waitrose is the top performer with a growth rate of 11.2% - the highest since August 2006. Admittedly this will be boosted by the stores acquired from the Co-operative / Somerfield combination but it is hardly a sign of a rush downmarket.
Growth for Aldi and Lidl continues to fall back from 2008 levels with Aldi growing ahead of the market at 8.0% and Lidl just keeping pace with the market growth of 5.2%.
Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons all continue to grow share and have added 1.1 share points between them. It is too early yet to assess the impact of Tesco’s Clubcard 2 within this 12 week period and the Tesco share continues under pressure.
It is worth noting that there is challenge to the sector coming from the falling grocery inflation rate (see below) – this will restrict value growth for the industry going forward.
An update on inflation
Grocery price inflation has further decreased since last month and the figure for the 12 week-ending period 6th September 2009 is 4.3%. This is the sixth successive drop in Grocery price inflation in this series of reports. As always, it is also important to remember that the drop in inflation does not mean that prices are falling, merely rising more slowly.
This figure is based on over 75,000 identical products compared year-on-year in the proportions purchased by British shoppers and therefore represents the most authoritative figure currently available. It is a ‘pure’ inflation measure in that shopping behaviour is held constant between the two comparison periods – shoppers are likely to achieve a lower personal inflation rate as they trade down or seek out more offers.
Total Till Roll
Great Britain Consumer Spend
Includes all expenditure through main store tills and excludes petrol & instore concession
|
|
12 Weeks to 07 September 2008
|
12 Weeks to 06 September 2009
|
change
|
|
|
£000s
|
% *
|
£000s
|
% *
|
%
|
|
Total Till Roll
|
27,743,400
|
|
28,376,010
|
|
2.3
|
|
Total Grocers
|
20,198,470
|
100.0%
|
21,247,210
|
100.0%
|
5.2
|
|
Total Multiples
|
19,696,310
|
97.5%
|
20,784,520
|
97.8%
|
5.5
|
|
Tesco
|
6,275,343
|
31.1%
|
6,564,678
|
30.9%
|
4.6
|
|
Asda
|
3,435,713
|
17.0%
|
3,703,737
|
17.4%
|
7.8
|
|
Sainsbury's
|
3,141,446
|
15.6%
|
3,360,483
|
15.8%
|
7.0
|
|
Morrisons
|
2,188,004
|
10.8%
|
2,391,943
|
11.3%
|
9.3
|
|
Total Co-operative
|
1,861,206
|
9.2%
|
1,738,586
|
8.2%
|
-6.6
|
|
Co-operative
|
1,102,254
|
5.5%
|
1,170,494
|
5.5%
|
6.2
|
|
Somerfield
|
758,952
|
3.8%
|
567,968
|
2.7%
|
-25.2
|
|
Waitrose
|
750,973
|
3.7%
|
835,135
|
3.9%
|
11.2
|
|
Iceland
|
335,488
|
1.7%
|
358,238
|
1.7%
|
6.8
|
|
Aldi
|
585,569
|
2.9%
|
632,293
|
3.0%
|
8.0
|
|
Lidl
|
471,489
|
2.3%
|
495,941
|
2.3%
|
5.2
|
|
Netto
|
158,225
|
0.8%
|
161,246
|
0.8%
|
1.9
|
|
Farm Foods
|
107,732
|
0.5%
|
118,110
|
0.6%
|
9.6
|
|
Other Freezer Centres
|
49,939
|
0.2%
|
52,194
|
0.2%
|
4.5
|
|
Other Multiples
|
335,183
|
1.7%
|
371,938
|
1.8%
|
11.0
|
|
Total Independents
|
502,162
|
2.5%
|
462,685
|
2.2%
|
-7.9
|
|
Total Symbols
|
178,875
|
0.9%
|
163,785
|
0.8%
|
-8.4
|
|
Other Independents
|
323,287
|
1.6%
|
298,900
|
1.4%
|
-7.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* = Percentage Share of Total Grocers
|
|
|
|
|
To view the video commentary from Ed Garner please click here
- ends -
Note to editor
These findings are based on TNS Worldpanel data for the 12 weeks to 6th September 2009. TNS Worldpanel monitors the household grocery purchasing habits of 25,000 demographically representative households in Great Britain. All data discussed in the above announcement is based on the value of items being bought by these consumers, TNS will only support data that is published in the context we have presented it and our own interpretation of these findings. We cannot be held responsible for any other interpretation of these findings.
For further information, please contact:
Maja Rode/Sara Taylor
Camargue
+44 (0) 20 7636 7366
mrode@camarguepr.com
About Kantar:
The Kantar Group is one of the world's largest research, insight and consultancy networks. By uniting the diverse talents of more than 20 specialist companies – including the recently-acquired TNS – the group aims to become the pre-eminent provider of compelling and actionable insights for the global business community. Its 26,500 employees work across 80 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at each and every point of the consumer cycle. The group’s services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies. The Kantar Group is a wholly-owned subsidiary of WPP Group plc. For further information, please visit www.kantargrouptns.com
