Positive trend in expectations
The General Economic Expectations Index (GEEI) stands at 97 points in July 2010. Argentines’ economic expectations did not change from last month but showed a significant improvement compared to July 2009.
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About the July 2010 wave of the GEEI
These results are drawn from a nationally representative survey that the School of Economics from the Universidad Católica Argentina and TNS Gallup Argentina carry out on a monthly basis aiming at recording people’s perspectives on the current and future economic situation, as well as their perceptions on employment, household income and purchase intention. In the last wave, conducted between 22th and 31st of July 2010, 1,008 people were interviewed in 26 locations across the country. The sample selection is multistage and probabilistic, and uses sex and age quotas according to the National Population Census. Survey results are representative of Argentina’s adult population.
Views on the Present, the Future and Purchase
The GEEI is composed of three sub-indices, Present Situation, Future Situation and Purchase. All sub-indices show minor changes from the previous month in July, although they have significant variations from last year.
The Present Situation sub-index increased to 106 points in July, a monthly variation of 1.3%; in a year-on-year comparison it shows an increase of 25.7%.
The Future Situation sub-index dropped to 80 points in July, a negative monthly variation of 1.9%, but a positive year-on-year variation of 10.3%.
Finally, the Purchase sub-index was up to 114 points in July, representing a monthly increase of 2.3%, with a more significant rise of 27.5% compared to 2009. This sub-index has recorded the highest increase in 2010 so far.
HISTORIC EVOLUTION OF THE GEEI
The GEEI was developed in 2004. That year, the Index showed significant fluctuations and averaged 95 points. The following year, the Index showed an increase of 4% and an average of 98 points. In 2006, there was a significant improvement in the expectations (11%), and the GEEI ended the year with an average of 110 points. The year 2007 was showed a persistent downward trend although, due to the recovery seen after October presidential elections, the index finished the year with a drop of only 2% and averaged 108 points. In 2008, expectations were severely affected by the conflict between the Government and the farmers as well as the international crisis. This year, the GEEI recorded a drop of 11% and an average of 96 points. The Index continued the downward trend in 2009, reaching its lowest mark ever (76 points) in April. It ended the year with a negative annual variation of 15% and an average of 82 points. So far for 2010, the average for the GEEI reached 90 points, a value that represents an increase of 10% compared to last year.
ABOUT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS INDEX (GEEI)
The General Economic Expectations Index is a monthly publication from the School of Economics at the Universidad Católica Argentina and TNS Gallup Argentina that aims to provide elements for a better understanding of the economic situation in Argentina. This is a reduced version of the monthly publication in Spanish available www.tns-gallup.com.ar.
For more information contact Ricardo Manuel Hermelo (TNS Gallup Argentina Political & Social Director): ricardo.hermelo@tns-gallup.com.ar
ABOUT TNS
TNS is a global market information and insight group. Its strategic goal is to be recognized as the global leader in delivering value-added information and insights that help its clients make more effective business decisions. TNS delivers innovative thinking and excellent service across a network of 80 countries. Working in partnership with clients, TNS provides high-quality information, analysis and insight that improve understanding of consumer behavior. TNS is the world’s leading provider of customized services, combining sector knowledge with expertise in the areas of Product Development & Innovation, Brand & Communication, Stakeholder Management and Retail & Shopper. TNS is a major supplier of consumer panel, media intelligence and audience measurement services.
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