TORONTO, January 18, 2012 – Canadian consumers are willing to take a fresh and more optimistic view of the economy and their prospects as we enter 2012, according to the latest consumer confidence survey conducted by TNS Canada. After dropping to 95.0 in December, the TNS Canadian Consumer Confidence Index rose sharply in January to 98.6, the highest it’s been since July of last year.
“Canadians are entering 2012 with a renewed sense of optimism about the economy” said Norman Baillie-David, Vice President of TNS Canada and Director of the Marketing and Social Research firm’s monthly tracking study. “As we enter a new year, Canadians have decided, at least for now, to ignore the dire news headlines coming from the US and Europe and to think that 2012 will be a good year for the economy.”
The Present Situation Index, which measures how people feel about the economy right now, dropped slightly in December to 92.9 and then rebounded five (5) full index points to 97.9 This indicates that despite continuing gloomy economic news and uncertain prospects, Canadians are looking around and saying to themselves: “I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m feeling OK about my own situation right now.”
The Expectations Index, which measures people’s outlook for the economy six months from now also rose sharply, from 99.2 in December to 102.9 in January, the highest it’s been since July of y, g y last year. “Canadians want to believe that 2012 will be a good economic year, and are reflecting that in a renewed sense of optimism” added Mr. Baillie-David. “Time will tell if the optimism will result in better economic performance, or if it’s just wishful thinking”.
The Buy Index, which measures the extent to which Canadians’ feel that now is a good time to purchase a “big ticket item”, such as a car or a major household appliance, is perhaps the most important of the sub-indices, because if people feel now is a good time to buy, they may act on it, which will provide the real economic stimulus. The Buy Index also rose, although not quite as sharply as the other indices, from 93.8 in December to 95.2 in January.
All in all, our Consumer Confidence Index is showing a good news story. We just hope it proves to be more than the optimism of a new year and carries forward to our survey next month.
Consumer Confidence Index tracks Canadians’ attitudes about the economy each month and is part of a global study conducted by TNS in 18 countries. Three indices are produced each month to show how confidence in the economy is changing: Present Situation Index; an Expectations Index; and a Buy Index. The Canadian fieldwork is conducted using the firm’s national bi-weekly telephone omnibus service, TNS Express Telephone. A total of 1,015 nationally representative Canadian adults were interviewed between January 9 and January 13, 2012. For a survey sample of this size, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About the CCI study
Seven questions make up the core survey of Consumer Confidence. While the overall CCI index uses all 7 questions to produce an index score, there are three sub-indices that rely on some of the questions. CCI Index: Includes all 7 variables.
Present Situation Index:
- How would you describe your country's current economic situation?
- How would you describe your country's current employment situation?
Expectations Index:
- What do you think will be your country's economic situation in the next 6 months?
- What do you think will be your country's employment situation in the next 6 months?
- What do you think your income will be in 6 months time?
Buy Index:
- Taking into consideration the cost of things today and the financial situation in general, to what extent would you say that now is a good or bad time to buy products such as: a house or apartment, a car, household appliances such as a washing machine, a refrigerator, a TV set etc.?
About the Director of the Canadian Study
About Norman Baillie-David:
Norman (“Norm”) Baillie-David is Vice President, Director of Public Opinion Research, and Head of Qualitative Research and Strategy for TNS Canada. He also leads the TNS office in the National Capital Region, as well as sitting on the TNS Global Steering Committee for Political and Social Research.
Over his twenty-five year plus career, Norm has designed and managed more than 1,000 surveys in a wide-variety of areas, ranging from high-technology to consumer products, and Norman is a recognized “expert” in complex survey methodology design and multivariate statistical analysis. He is in frequent demand by the media and market research industry in Canada to speak on the comparisons and contrasts of public opinion in Quebec and the rest of Canada, and has published widely. In addition, Norm has conducted assignments in more than 40 different countries around the world, and has a keen interest in cross-cultural issues, especially related to public opinion, the economy, and the use of technology.
As a bilingual and bicultural Montrealer originally, Norman is one of those rare researchers who conducts research in a seamless and transparent manner among both English and French Canadians, with each group believing that he is “one of their own”. The result is a keen insider’s perspective on sentiments across the country among both English and French. Having conducted more than 1,200 surveys and many more focus groups, Norm is constantly abreast of what Canadian consumers across the country are thinking and feeling about their prospects.
Before joining TNS Canada, Norm was Managing Partner of an Ottawa-based public opinion research and management consulting firm (2001-2009). He spent most of his preceding career at a major management consulting firm, as well as three years with a wellknown Quebec market research firm. He is a Certified Marketing Research Professional (CMRP), member of the Market Research Intelligence Association (MRIA), and he served as a President of the Ottawa Chapter from 2002 to 2004.
If you would like to add proprietary questions to the CCI study, obtain full tabular results, receive a historical time series for all the index scores, or if you have other inquiries about CCI, please contact:
Norman Baillie-David, MBA, CMRP
Vice President, Qualitative and Public Opinion Research
(613) 230-4408 x101
norman.baillie-david@tnsglobal.com
www.tnscanada.ca
About TNS
TNS Canada (formerly known as TNS Canadian Facts) is the Canadian arm of TNS. TNS advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world’s consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world.
TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups.
Please visit www.tnsglobal.com for more information.
About Kantar
Kantar is one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy networks. By uniting the diverse talents of its 13 specialist companies, the group aims to become the pre-eminent provider of compelling and inspirational insights for the global business community Its 28 500 employees work across community. 28,500 100 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at each and every point of the consumer cycle. The group’s services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies.
For further information, please visit us at www.kantar.com
